ALCS Preview

Catcher:

Louisville: Shane Cashner

Portland: Amos Garcia

Amos has a bit more pop in his bat (24 extra base hits vs. 16), but Shane gets on base a lot more (.307 OBP vs. .266) so you have to give a slight advantage to Shane. Behind the plate Amos is better than decent (84,76,82), but Shane is better (82,88,90). Portland’s backup is more useful than Louisville’s, but you have to say there is a clear advantage for Louisville

First Base

Louisville: Mariano Guerrero

Portland: Dave Bale

Mariano is a stud (.333 21 96 with a 95/77 W/K ratio and a .944 OPS), but Dave Bale is one the 5 best players in all Long Haul. This season he went .299 45 125 39 SB and a 70/44 ratio and an OPS of .975. Mariano isn’t a bad defender (2+/1- with 1 error in 134 starts), but Dave can’t compare to Dave’s (6+/0- with no errors in 104 starts) so the clear advantage goes to Portland

Second Base

Louisville: Shawn Swift

Portland: Wladimir Telemaco

Wladimir has the better bat (.319 and 25 HR’s 19 SB’s and a .934 OPS vs. .292 18, 12, and .897), though Shawn has a better glove. IMO the gap in the bat is bigger and more important so I give advantage to Portland

Shortstop

Louisville: Jolbert Perez

Portland: Trace Kendall

A repeat of the catchers. Trace has a lot more pop (27 extra base hits vs. 2), but Jolbert gets on base more (.366 vs. .288) all giving Trace a tiny OPS advantage. Their fielding stats are nearly identical except for Jolert’s 13 + plays which gives the advantage to Louisville

Third Base

Louisville: Von Hammonds

Portland: Morgan Mitchel

Von has a small advantage at the plate .313 14 HR’s .820 OPS vs. .289 18 HR’s .809 OPS and on the field 10 + vs. 4, though Morgan has a better fielding percentage. Overall the small advantage goes to Louisville

Left Field

Louisville: Walt Coniglaro

Portland: Pedro Perez

Walt is a wonderful players, but like Dave Bale, Pedro is one the best 5 players in the league. Walt went .289 32 HR 106 RBI 45 SB and a .862 OPS. Pedro was .305 42 116 0 with a 1.016 OPS (also a 99/41 w/k ratio). In the field Pedro put up 11 + plays in only 95 games, compared to Walt’s 2/3 ratio in 138 games so the advantage goes to Portland

Center Field

Louisville: Tony Gutierrez

Portland: Lance Wallace

Interestingly, both teams fielded rookies at the position. Lance has a little bitter better bat .284 22 HR’s 29 SB on 35 attempts and a .835 OPS vs. .269 29 HR’s 17 SB on 26 attempts and a .813 OPS. Its probably a wash in the field as Lance had 17 + plays in 113 starts compared to 13 + plays in 134 starts, but Tony fielding percentage was .997 compared to Lance’s .969. Overall the advantage goes to Portland.

Right Field

Louisville: Angel Miranda

Portland: Alex Gomez

Behind the plate Alex is basically Angel with more speed (more extra base hits per PP, 19 SB’s compared to 0. Overall the OPS difference is .841 vs. .803. Angel should be better in the field but the stats were pretty similar (12 + plays in 160 start vs. 6 + plays in 77 starts). Overall the small advantage goes to Portland

DH

Louisville: Eduardo Rincon

Portland: Humberto Flores

Its remarkable how similar the offense are constructed. Once again Humberto is just a slightly better version of Eduardo. (.323 29 HR .986 OPS vs. .327 24 HR .919 OPS) so the advantage goes to Portland.

“10^th starter”

Louisville: Sal Gwynn

Portland: Esteban James

Esteban has been the better hitter this season (.303 21 HR 15 SB .906 OPS vs. .232 37 HR 0 SB .730 OPS). Sal was a more useful defensive player playing a capable SS and really nice 2B, while Estaban played some 2B, 3B, LF, CF, and RF playing the corner outfield spots well and was only a disaster in CF. The greater impact at the plate gives a small advantage to Portland.

Starting pitching:

Louisville’s best 3:

Luis Cedeno

Edgardo Montana

Darrin Lennon

496.6 IP 1.18 WHIP 3.04 ERA

Portland’s best 3:

Henry Burns

Chris Stanford

Bobby Buchanan

716.6 IP 1.17 WHIP 3.00 ERA

The WHIP and ERA are about equal, but there is a huge advantage that makes one feel slightly better about Portland’s staff than Louisville, but it is really, really close.

Closer

Louisville: Dennis Cho

Portland: Alex Rivera

Again, its really close. Cho has a better save ratio (14/15 compared to 20/25), but Rivera has slightly better numbers otherwise. We’ll call it a tie.

Overall:

These teams are remarkablely similar Portland has more truly great players, but Louisville won the AL last season. We’ll say Portland in 7.